Total commercial mortgage origination volume is forecasted to increase 27% to $805.5 billion in 2026 from the $633.7 billion expected in 2025, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced at its 2026 Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention and Expo in San Diego. Multifamily origination volume alone is expected to increase to $399.2 billion in 2026 from the $330.6 billion expected in 2025.
MBA’s 2026 economic and market outlook was presented by Mike Fratantoni, chief economist and SVP for research and business development; Reggie Booker, associate VP of CREF research; and Judith Ricks, associate VP of CREF research.
“MBA forecasts that GDP grew 2.3% in 2025, but will slow in the next two years, with growth projections of 1.9% this year and 1.7% in 2027,” said Fratantoni. “The unemployment rate will average 4.5% in 2026, up from 4.3% in 2025.”
Strong originations at the end of 2025 suggest a significant pipeline of commercial mortgage activity flowing into 2026. It also showed that many borrowers had the opportunity to refinance loans that were approaching maturity, according to MBA.
“The CRE lending market showed strength throughout 2025,” said Ricks. “Commercial originations increased year-over-year during the first six months, and this growth continued in the second half of the year. The multifamily market experienced similar strength throughout the year, and that is expected to continue in 2026. We believe much of this activity came from refinance and acquisition activity as borrowers were able to take advantage of relatively favorable rates. As a result, we expect this to reduce the amount of mortgage debt scheduled to mature over the next few years.”
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