Greater Phoenix remains one of the most closely watched rental housing markets in the country. Industry leaders recently gathered at Connect Phoenix Multifamily, SFR & BTR 2026to break down how submarkets diverge in performance, local job growth, supply pipelines, and capital flows are shaping the region.
Vice President Nate Basinger of Kennedy Wilson moderated the event’s first panel discussion. “We’ve had a strong recovery period, but job growth is starting to slow. The big question now is whether that trend reverses next year,” said Basinger. “Right now, projections are mixed, and that uncertainty is something everyone should be watching closely.”
Phoenix was a top-performing market for job growth during the pandemic, but as that slowed, it impacted everything, including household formation, demand, and ultimately housing needs.
“The biggest issue right now is what I call the supply overhang. Since 2020, we’ve delivered more units than we’ve absorbed,” he added. “At one point, that gap was about 15,000 units; now it’s closer to 13,000, so we are moving in the right direction.”
The group noted that some markets nationally, like Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Charlotte, are actually in better shape. Phoenix, however, is still working through excess supply.
“Performance really depends on where you are,” said Rachael Kish, Senior Vice President of Operations at Asset Living. “Newer assets are feeling pressure from rent compression, but Class B and older assets are stabilizing. We’re starting to see renters move back up into newer product as pricing adjusts, which is helping absorption.”
Speaking to product performance and leasing trends, Jake Taylor, Senior Managing Director, Multifamily Investments at Mark-Taylor commented, “What we’re seeing is that newer, higher-quality product is actually leasing faster than older assets. That’s happening not just in Phoenix, but in markets like Las Vegas, too. There’s a shift in where people want to live, moving away from older, centralized locations toward newer suburban or peripheral submarkets.”
The panel also honed in on capital markets and development strategy, citing TSMC’s new manufacturing hub as a hotspot for multifamily growth. “Development has been challenging over the past 12–18 months,” said Taylor. “You have to be extremely selective and very surgical about where and what you build. Institutional capital is focused on specific pockets with strong income growth and long-term fundamentals. Liquidity has also been limited, but we expect more activity, both transactions and recapitalizations, topick up over the next couple of years.”
Basinger touched on Phoenix’s rent trends, noting, “We saw unprecedented rent growth in 2021 to 2022, growth that normally would have taken 3–5 years. The correction we experienced afterward was uncomfortable but necessary.”
“Owners and operators had to adjust quickly. But the important thing is the market is correcting itself, added Kish. “If it didn’t, regulation likely would have stepped in, so in a way, this reset is healthy.”
The panel also discussed resident retention. “One of the bright spots in Phoenix is retention,” said Kish. “Renewal rates are strong, and operators are getting more creative in keeping residents. Taylor added, “Moving is expensive, and if you can offer incentives, whether that’s small rent adjustments or perks, it often makes more sense for residents to stay.”
As Phoenix transitions into its next phase, submarket selection, product differentiation, and disciplined underwriting will define success in the near term. Long-term fundamentalsdriven by population growth, job creation, and transformative investments such as TSMC continue to position Phoenix as one of the most dynamic housing markets in the country.
“The biggest takeaway is this: Phoenix has changed,” said Basinger. “It’s no longer a smaller, high-growth market—it’s now a major, institutional market more comparable to Dallas than it is to its past self. We have to rethink how we analyze, forecast, and invest in this market going forward.”
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