Stefanik set to run for NY governor

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is preparing to officially launch her campaign for New York governor, according to two sources familiar with her thinking. 

The sources told The Hill that it’s not a matter of if, but when Stefanik launches her campaign, which she will do at a time and place of her choosing. 

Speculation has been swirling for months over whether Stefanik, a close ally of President Trump, would seek the top executive office in the Empire State.

Polling shows her leading a hypothetical Republican primary. A poll conducted by GrayHouse found that Stefanik has a commanding lead over fellow Rep. Mike Lawler (D-N.Y.), who is considering a run, 44 percent to 7 percent among GOP primary voters. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman secured 5 percent support. The margin of error is 5 percentage points.

Last month, President Trump endorsed Lawler and Blakeman for reelection in their respective posts, raising speculation that he was seeking to clear the field for Stefanik. 

Republicans say they have reason to be optimistic in the Empire State. 

The party made gains in New York, which is considered a reliably blue state, in the last two elections. Trump lost the state by just more than 12 points last year, improving his 2020 margin by 23 points. Hochul, who stepped into her role as governor in 2021, defeated Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin by roughly 6 points. 

But the eventual Republican gubernatorial nominee will still face headwinds in New York. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as “likely Democratic.”