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Nermeen Nabil
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Source: AGU Advances This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. 本文是Eos文章的授权翻译。 过去25年间,印度季风发生了变化。印度西北部地区的降雨量比以往大幅增加,而印度-恒河平原则因降雨不足而面临干旱。 超过10亿人依靠季风维持南亚地区的经济稳定;这一气候系统的进一步变化可能导致大范围的困境。由于常用的气候模型无法捕捉到已经发生的季风变化,科学家们一直难以预测这种气候模式未来的发展趋势。 Mahendra等人指出,现有模型既不能充分反映大西洋温度的变化,也不能充分反映这些温度变化与全球其他地区气候模式之间的联系。因此,耦合模型往往无法预测这种季风转变。 具体而言,目前的气候模型缺乏将有关冷斑(cold blob)的信息纳入其中的能力,冷斑是位于格陵兰岛南部的一片冷水区域。当研究人员将冷斑添加到气候模型结果中时,他们发现,它可以改变急流,使其将水汽输送到印度西北部,同时阻止其他地区风暴系统的形成。这正是季风模式中观测到的那种转变。当一个大尺度风型以这种方式阻止较小尺度天气型的形成时,这种机制被称为正压调控机制(barotropic governor mechanism)。...
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