India’s agricultural sector faces a crossroads. While the country’s farming economy continues to expand—fueled partly by access to cheaper Russian energy that has boosted overall economic growth—new US tariffs threaten to reshape export dynamics and accelerate the urgency for technological transformation.
President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Indian imports to 50% as of August 27, with threats of further increases to 100%, has put immediate pressure on a sector that exported $5.7 billion in agricultural products to the US in fiscal year 2023-24. The tariffs hit key export categories including marine products, Basmati rice, spices, fresh fruits, and vegetable oils.
“The imposition of 50% tariffs means that supplies of most of these items will no longer be profitable for Indian farmers,” according to the office of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, India’s Minister of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare. The ministry says producers are now actively exploring alternative markets, including Russia and potentially China, despite historical tensions.
Agtech: a hedge against trade volatility?
The trade disruption comes at a critical moment for Indian agriculture, which accounts for 18.2% of GDP and employs roughly 46% of the country’s workforce. Industry analysts say the pressure could actually accelerate technology adoption as farmers seek to reduce input costs, improve yields, and access new markets—making India an increasingly attractive destination for agtech investment.
While India’s Ministry of Finance had projected 7.5% economic growth this year—positioning the country as the world’s third-largest and fastest-growing economy—trade escalations may delay those targets. However, the underlying fundamentals for agricultural technology remain strong.
McKinsey has projected India’s agricultural sector could grow from approximately $600 billion today to $1.4 trillion by 2035 and $3.1 trillion by 2047, though these forecasts are now under review. Importantly, analysts believe US trade pressure will not significantly dampen investment interest from global agribusiness majors, many of which see technology deployment as essential to capturing market share.
Global giants in India
Syngenta is among the companies betting heavily on India’s technology transition. The Swiss agribusiness employs more than 1,800 people in the country and positions itself as an R&D-driven company focused on helping farmers increase productivity while reducing input costs.
“India is a key market for the company,” Kerry Irwin, Syngenta’s spokesperson for Asia, Middle East and Africa tells AgFunderNews. “We are always evaluating opportunities in the country due to its size, growth trajectory and the potential for the use of new technologies.”
India’s domestic crop protection market is valued at approximately $3 billion and expected to grow at a 4.5% compound annual growth rate through 2029. The country has 140 million hectares of net sown area—the second largest globally after the United States—and ranks first in pulses and second in rice, wheat, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables and cotton.
Irwin notes that while the sector has developed rapidly over the past decade, “much of that production remains relatively subsistence in nature,” pointing to significant headroom for technology-enabled intensification.
Syngenta has launched several new products in India in recent years and has additional products in its registration pipeline for the near term, focusing on solutions that increase returns on investment for growers.
Bayer sees a similar opportunity in India’s push toward modernization, particularly as climate challenges and resource constraints mount.
“India is a key growth market for Bayer and an integral part of our Crop Science global strategy,” says Simon Wiebusch, country divisional head for Bayer’s Crop Science Division covering India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. “A central priority for us is contributing to the country’s food and nutritional security by supporting smallholder farmers with innovations that enhance both productivity and sustainability.”
The company is targeting specific value chains for technology deployment. Corn represents a prime example, with rising demand across food, feed, and biofuel applications creating pressure to strengthen the ecosystem through improved hybrids, advanced agronomic practices, and integrated solutions.
Crop protection remains another core growth area. Bayer has already added four to five new products to its Indian portfolio in 2025, including Bicota and Camalus, to address critical needs across rice and other crops.
“We also see fruits and vegetables as a significant growth segment, where India has a clear opportunity to increase domestic consumption and expand exports by improving yields and meeting international quality standards,” Wiebusch tells AgFunderNews.
Technology’s response to structural challenges
The push for technology adoption is being driven by more than just trade dynamics. Wiebusch notes that demand for agricultural inputs is steadily rising as farmers increasingly adopt modern agronomic practices, improved seeds, mechanization, and digital solutions.
“Farmers are adapting to challenges such as water scarcity, soil health degradation, climate variability, and labor shortages,” he says. Bayer is witnessing growing input usage particularly as producers respond to labor and environmental pressures—trends the company believes will underpin steady demand growth for key crops.
The Indian government’s policy push toward climate-smart farming is providing additional tailwinds for technology deployment, creating an environment where innovation adoption may accelerate regardless of short-term trade headwinds.
As global agricultural supply chains continue to fragment, India’s combination of scale, growth trajectory, and urgent need for productivity solutions may position the country as one of the most important agtech markets of the coming decade—with trade pressures serving as an accelerant rather than a barrier to transformation.
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