Sherrill opens lead in New Jersey Democratic governor primary: poll

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) has opened up her largest lead yet in independent public polling of the Democratic primary for the New Jersey gubernatorial race. 

A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey showed Sherrill in the lead with 28 percent support, a significant jump from the previous Emerson poll conducted in January that had her in the lead but with only 10 percent support. It’s also higher than the 17 percent support she had in last month’s Rutgers University/Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling survey, one of the only other independent polls taken of the race. 

In the most recent Emerson poll, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) are tied for second place with 11 percent support each. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller is right behind them with 10 percent, while former New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney was in last with 5 percent. 

Just less than a quarter of voters said they were undecided, a significant drop from the more than half who said so in January. 

The results mark a shift from most other polling throughout the race so far. Public and internal polling from candidates’ campaigns has consistently shown Sherrill with a lead but by a much smaller margin of no more than a few points. 

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted in a release that Sherrill’s increase is driven by more solid support among voters over 50 and voters with a college degree, with a third of both groups supporting her. 

Democrats indicated earlier this month that they viewed the race as a toss-up, with most campaigns saying they feel the majority of candidates were within striking distance of winning. 

Polling has varied on which candidate is in second place behind Sherrill. 

The results also came just after Baraka’s arrest at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in Newark, but what if any impact it may have on the race is unclear. The poll showed 44 percent support his arrest, 38 percent oppose it and 18 percent said they are unsure or don’t know enough to say.

But a couple of other polls released over the past day also show positive indicators for Sherrill. 

An AARP/Siena College Research Institute poll released Thursday showed the four-term House member ahead with 25 percent, followed by Baraka in second with 11 percent. A poll from former Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray’s StimSight Research released Wednesday showed Sherrill with 31 percent to Baraka’s 21 percent and Fulop’s 19 percent. 

On the GOP side, former state Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli, the 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee, has a clear lead with 44 percent support. Former talk radio host Bill Spadea came in second with 18 percent, while state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R) placed third with 8 percent. 

The poll was being conducted as President Trump weighed in to endorse Ciattarelli, lending his widely influential support in the Republican primary. Ciattarelli had been leading in polling previously, so Trump’s endorsement could set him on track to roll to the nomination. 

The Emerson poll was conducted from May 11-13 among 1,000 registered voters, including 386 likely Democratic primary voters and 330 likely Republican primary voters. The credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, for the entire sample was 3 points, for Democrats was 4.9 points and for Republicans was 5.4 points.