Why are Democrats shutting down the government to save enhanced Obamacare subsidies?
I understand, in the abstract, why Democrats like Obamacare subsidies and how they benefit people who would otherwise struggle to buy health insurance. But politically, shutting down the government to protect these subsidies is the silliest thing Democrats have done since they stopped the Republicans from shutting the government down last September.
Republicans love farm subsidies because they view farmers as a central part of their base. And farm subsidies disproportionately benefit red states. But, as it happens, so do Obamacare subsidies. Four out of five Obamacare enrollees live in red states. Out of the top 15 states collecting Obamacare subsidies, Trump won 12 in 2024.
The effect of letting these subsidies expire won’t be trivial, either. The average Obamacare premium will more than double if they do, and the impact will be widely felt. In effect, this is a tax increase on more than 24 million people. In contrast, only about 600,000 farms receive direct federal agricultural subsidies.
Cold-blooded political strategy — something in extremely short supply among congressional Democrats — says you should make outraged noises about saving Obamacare while giving Republicans plenty of rope. If you want to really put the cat among the pigeons, you could float the idea of paying for the Obamacare subsidies by capping farm subsidies, 80 percent of which are collected by just 10 percent of recipients. Redirecting those subsidies to Obamacare would cover the cost and directly benefit several hundred times as many people.
The goal shouldn’t be to block Republican foolishness but to make sure Republicans own the results. Instead, the Democrats are, once again, burning political capital to save Republicans from themselves. The worst possible outcome now would be for Republicans to present themselves as responsible and statesmanlike by working with Democrats to end the shutdown and save Obamacare subsidies.
Democrats have fallen into this trap before. Back in December, they helped Republicans avoid a shutdown and pass a farm subsidy bill and disaster relief. In fact, more House Democrats than House Republicans voted for the bill. Democrats, of course, got no credit, and Republicans got to spend the Christmas break bragging to their farm constituents instead of explaining why they had turned their backs on them.
Don’t get me wrong, I recognize that being tough isn’t easy. It is to the Democrats’ personal, if not political, credit, that they are trying to stop bad things from happening to ordinary people. Unfortunately, the times call for sterner measures.
I can’t put it better than I did in December. “The country won’t be on the road to recovery until it is allowed to experience those consequences. If that means giving free rein to the collection of clowns with flamethrowers that now passes for the Republican Party, so be it. Democrats should resist the urge to intervene when the inevitable happens and they set themselves on fire.”
If the Obamacare subsidies are allowed to expire, by the time the midterms roll around in November, there will be 19 million furious people — plus who knows how many family and friends — in red states looking to take their doubled health care premiums out of their Republican representative’s hide.
Forget about red-state Republicans who might be vulnerable in a wave election. There will be two toss-up House seats in Ohio and 583,000 Obamacare recipients, two toss-up seats in Arizona and 423,000 Obamacare recipients, and two toss-up seats in Pennsylvania, with 496,000 Obamacare recipients. As four of those seats are currently held by Republicans, that would be enough to determine control of the House right there.
Elections do have consequences. It’s time for Democrats to stop shielding voters from them. End the shutdown and let Republicans end the enhanced Obamacare subsidies and fulfil their electoral destiny. It’s going to be tough, but we are in tough times, and I’m afraid losing some healthcare subsidies may be the least of it. The only way out is through.
Chris Truax is an appellate attorney who served as Southern California chair for John McCain’s primary campaign in 2008.
