The Federal Reserve’s influence on the economy is immense, and often misunderstood. President of the San Francisco Fed Mary Daly gives an exclusive, firsthand look into the central bank’s daily decision-making, explaining how the Fed’s policies, at both the regional and national level, ripple through society. From housing prices to immigration’s impact on labor, Daly weighs the major factors shaping the U.S. economy. As political and market pressures mount, she reflects on what it means to lead with discipline and data, and what every business leader can learn from the Fed’s balancing act.
This is an abridged transcript of an interview from Rapid Response, hosted by the former editor-in-chief of Fast Company Bob Safian. From the team behind the Masters of Scale podcast, Rapid Response features candid conversations with today’s top business leaders navigating real-time challenges. Subscribe to Rapid Response wherever you get your podcasts to ensure you never miss an episode.
You run one of the Fed’s 12 regional banks. Your district covers nine Western states, plus Guam, American Samoa, The Mariana Islands. Can you briefly describe the role of your office, and how it relates to the Fed overall? When we hear Fed Chair Jerome Powell announcing a change in interest rates, are you feeding into that? How does all this work?
In 1913, when the Fed was formed, there was a decision that we shouldn’t be Washington-centered. That having a presence in Washington with the Board of Governors was important, but having 12 regional reserve banks was equally important so that we could balance out the decisions about the economy across the country, not just in DC.
So I lead one of the 12 reserve banks, and those reserve banks do feed into monetary policy. We go to each and every FOMC meeting. We are rotating on votes, but we’re always participating. We’re thinking about how our districts with the lived experience in the economy is and how that matters when we make monetary policy.
Monetary policy, the misnomer is it’s all about numbers and markets, but it’s actually about people and lived economy experiences throughout the nation. And so that’s the role of reserve banks, in addition to managing all the operational duties that our teams have, including making sure you have cash when you need it, that your bank can get it and distribute it, making sure the banking system is safe and sound.
You’ve said there’s no politics in the Fed. You’re not funded by the federal government, so a shutdown doesn’t affect you, but everybody tries to influence you guys, policymakers, the White House, investors. How do you keep that politics and that pressure out of what you do?
The founding of the Federal Reserve 1913 had two elements to it that I think have been durable over time and led the way for central banking across the globe. First was that you had to have a regional voice and the second was that you had to be independent. Because monetary policy is made for the longer run and the decisions we make on where to put cash depots and how to distribute our supervision, that’s all got to be done no matter what administration is in place.
So to be durable, especially on the monetary policy part, Congress said let’s make these individuals independent of political persuasion and really thinking about the goals we gave them, and in our case, it’s price stability and full employment, making sure inflation is at 2%, making sure that the economy is not producing lots of unemployment or running so hot, so un-sustainably that inflation should go up. So those are the goals we have.
You asked how do you maintain that? How do you not get influenced? Ultimately, who we work for is the American people. Of course, individuals have points of view and we have to consider those because otherwise we’d just be in an echo chamber. But there’s a difference in listening to understand and listening to be persuaded.
And when the President tries to remove a Fed Governor, as President Trump has done with Lisa Cook, how distracting is that from
It’s really not distracting from the task at hand. Let me just speak about myself. We’re fiduciary stewards of public trust and public responsibilities, and so that’s where I have to attend. Now, I think about not just what’s right in front of me, but ensuring that the American people have a stable and healthy economy over the long term and that the independence of the Fed is preserved not just for the next two months or two weeks, but in fact over the time period, passing that baton to the next generation of leaders.
There’s been so much disruption this year in 2025. Are there particular economic indicators that you are most focused on right now?
So I think about it as a three-legged stool. So the first component is the public data, the things we get from the government, the things that we get on a regular basis. They’re very, very important, but they’re only one part of our overall data collection. We also get data from the private sector. One of the more critical components of that three-legged stool, which is underappreciated in my opinion, is the time that the reserve bank Presidents in particular spend talking to people, to CEOs, small, medium and large businesses, to community members, civic leaders, unions and workers thinking about not just what were they doing last week, but what are they doing going forward.
So right now, I’m very focused on that third leg. And the reason is because when you get to a point where the economy is changing, you have to rely on people who are telling you not what they were doing last week, but what they are doing next week, the next month, the next quarter and ultimately, the next year. And we take that valuable information back to the FOMC meeting. It’s really a robust process and one that I think is critical at these moments.
Obviously, the economy is always changing to some extent, but it certainly feels like we’re at a certain kind of inflection point. I know you’ve rated the sentiment of your region as cautiously optimistic, which is a little incongruous with an economy that seems like it’s moving to something we’re not quite sure where it’s going to go. Can you address that disconnect and maybe explain how and where you see the economy moving?
Absolutely. So there is quite a bit of uncertainty still, not as high as earlier in the year. The uncertainty really spiked after April 2nd, after Liberation Day. There was just so much uncertainty people didn’t know if they were going to be able to buy their smartphone or if they should buy it right away or if they should wait.
Consumers were uncertain. Businesses were uncertain about what’s this going to mean. But at this point, I think those things have settled, and the economy weathered that fairly well. The unemployment rate has gone up a little bit, but not that much. Inflation has gradually come down except in the tariffed sectors.Â
So the only places where you see prices rising are in the ones directly affected by tariffs. And so people think of that increasingly as a one time price level adjustment and then they’ll be okay.
Another thing that I think is important is pick a basket of goods that you like to purchase. Put them in a cart at one of your favorite online retailers and then check what has happened to that basket of goods over time. And what you’re seeing is that while certain items have gone up, other ones are being deeply discounted, so people feel like they’re not losing the kind of ground they lost in the big inflation rise after the pandemic. So I think that gives people some confidence.
Recession indicators were quite high and rising earlier in the year and now they’re not really predicting it at all. Consumer sentiment has gone back up after falling, business sentiment has gone back up after falling. So I think that’s where I get the cautious optimism. I was at University of Utah a couple weeks ago and the students are optimistic, and I was really encouraged by that because that generation is like a bellwether. They see that if they learn these new skills, AI, et cetera, they can really make a dent in the economy.
So what is the new economy going to look like? The truth is no one knows, but we do know what the elements will be. Certainly, artificial intelligence is making its way. Is it going to be transformative? Is this going to be the new steam engine or electricity? I don’t know. But it is making a contribution to people’s ability to do things faster, better, cheaper and hopefully, will also make a contribution to us doing things that we never imagined were possible.
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