What to watch in the Arizona special election to fill Grijalva’s seat

Former Pima County supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) and small businessowner Daniel Butierez (R) are vying for the chance to replace the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) to represent Arizona’s 7th Congressional District in Tuesday’s special election. 

Grijalva died in March due to complications related to his cancer treatment, opening up a House seat that spans most of the state’s southern border and includes a portion of Tucson. His daughter, Adelita, won the Democratic primary in July to succeed him in Congress. 

The special election will have major implications on the Republicans’ narrow GOP majority in the House. 

Here’s what to watch for in Tuesday’s special election: 

Another Grijalva poised to fill the seat

Adelita Grijalva is projected to easily win the seat and serve out the remainder of her father’s term given its reliably blue leanings. 

Former Vice President Harris won the seat in November by 22 points, according to The Downballot. The late congressman also went head-to-head with Butierez last fall, winning his seat by close to 27 points.  

Adelita Grijalva has her own established ties within the community, in addition to benefitting from her last name.

That’s also not to mention she has a major fundraising advantage over Butierez. A pre-primary campaign filing showed the former Pima County supervisor had raised $421,000 between early July and early September, leaving her with roughly $108,000 cash in the bank. She started off the pre-special election campaign finance period with $128,000. 

During the same period, the Republican candidate had raised $28,000 and had close to $60,000 left in the bank. He started off the pre-special election campaign finance period with about $98,000. 

Do Democrats overperform? 

One of the biggest questions on Tuesday night will be how well Democrats do. The party has been routinely overperforming in congressional and legislative special elections this year, with the party’s candidates outperforming Harris in 33 out of 39 races, according to elections and data compiled from The Downballot.

Democrats fared so well in several state legislative elections that the party picked up three seats. 

Of course, the dynamics between state legislative and congressional special elections can’t entirely be compared but it does show a positive trend for Democrats. 

Overperformance will be a key question here given the district is already reliably blue-leaning; if it’s a non-competitive race, that could hypothetically encourage some voters not to show up. But that might not necessarily be something Democrats need worry about as they’ve also overperformed in their own blue districts.  

How will the race impact Johnson’s Speakership? 

House Republicans have a narrow majority, 219-213. Grijalva’s expected win would bring her party to 214 total. She could be sworn in as quickly as Wednesday. 

That means Republicans can only afford two defections from their caucus assuming all members are present when voting on legislation, putting a strain on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), particularly as both parties look to avert a government shutdown. 

Congress has until Sept. 30 to pass funding to keep the government running. 

Republicans won’t have any time before the midterms to try and pad their majority through additional special elections. The next special election to fill a Republican seat — former Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Tenn.) seat — is Dec. 2.