Whole Hog Politics: In Virginia, it’s fundamentals versus vibes 

The Democratic Party of Virginia pounced on the news that officials in a national organization for Republican adults younger than the age of 40 were part of a sprawling group chat that included a dizzying array of racial, ethnic and anti-gay slurs and Holocaust jokes. 

The story must have looked like a windfall to Virginia Democrats, who have spent the past two weeks trying to endure the story of the distasteful electronic communications of one of their own, Jay Jones, the former state lawmaker who is the party’s nominee for attorney general in next month’s election.

We don’t have any useful polling since the scandal broke, but Republicans have been hoping that they can use Jones’s already weaker position with voters compared with that of Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger to secure a downballot victory for incumbent state Attorney General Jason Miyares and maybe even close the gap between the GOP gubernatorial nominee, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, and Spanberger. 

Jones and Spanberger, meanwhile, have tried to say as little as possible about the whole thing and keep the races focused on the fundamentals: an unpopular president, mass federal layoffs amid a government shutdown, rising prices for food and energy and concerns about health insurance coverage. The putrescence of the Republican chats was, therefore, a good thing for Virginia Democrats insofar as it muddied the waters on the matter of terrible things that 30-something-year-old men in politics say — but only if it made the issue more unappealing as a Republican attack on Jones. 

Somebody at the state party did not get that memo and released a statement demanding that Earle-Sears “call on participants of a leaked Young Republicans chat that used racist language to step down.” She promptly did and said “Now it’s your turn, Abigail.”

Ooof.

Democrats perhaps thought Earle-Sears would follow Vice President Vance’s lead. Vance has condemned the “pearl-clutching” of Republicans who said that jokes about Nazi gas chambers and the casual use of slurs was grounds for removal, saying that Jones’s offense “is 1,000 times worse than what a bunch of young people, a bunch of kids say in a group chat.”

The “kids” Vance is excusing are actually almost the age of the vice president, and certainly some of them are older than Jones was in 2022. That was when, as a 33-year-old, he tortured one of his former Republican colleagues in the state Legislature with texts that included jokes about killing the top Republican in the House of Delegates and wishing that the man’s children would die.

But aside from being very different kinds of people, Vance and Earle-Sears are running very different races. She is trying to appeal to independent voters in a blue-leaning state while Vance is trying to keep his place as the hardest-right contender in the 2028 Republican presidential primary.

It’s reminiscent of the 2017 brouhaha over Alabama Republican Senate nominee Roy Moore and then-Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.). Some Democrats envied the way in which Republicans stuck together behind Moore, who was accused of targeting underage girls as a prosecutor years before, and Franken, who was facing sexual harassment claims from his years in the entertainment business. But in the end, Democrats dumped Franken to have the high ground against Moore, who did indeed lose in deep-red Alabama.

The impulse to envy the cravenness and cynicism of one’s opponents is with us always.

Now, as a matter of how — or how not to — run a campaign, the Virginia contest this year has a great deal to offer in terms of the practice of politics. But will any of this your-texts-are-worse-than-our-texts business make much difference?

As we’ve said before, Virginia, like New Jersey, which is also picking a governor this year, is a useful barometer of how voters are feeling a year out from the midterms. President Trump’s approval ratings in those states pretty well matches his national ratings, and both states have lots of the high-propensity suburban voters and lower-propensity working-class voters who will duke it out for control of Congress in 2026. 

The latest numbers from the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) suggest that Democrats remain less popular nationally than Republicans. Democrats are an eye-watering 26 points underwater while Republicans are a more mildly malodorous 11 points beneath the surface. And while independent voters are very slightly more likely to blame Republicans for the ongoing shutdown, there’s plenty of blame for Democrats, too.

This is not the picture of a party on the cusp of a decisive repudiation of the party in power. Other polling reaffirms that while President Trump has been rapidly losing ground with voters on key issues like the economy and immigration, he’s still preferable to Democrats on almost every big-ticket item other than health care.

But let’s peel back those NORC numbers a bit. Why are Democrats so much more unpopular than Republicans just now? It’s the Democrats themselves. Independents hold identically bad views of both parties, with 53 percent taking a dim view of each one. But among Democrats, just 67 percent like their own party compared with 84 percent of Republicans who are happy with their home team.

Does one suppose that the 28 percent of Democrats who dislike their own party are up for grabs to Republicans? Some are, of course. But probably not very many. Parties in the aftermath of deflating defeats like the one Democrats suffered last year are usually unhappy but almost always come home.

And that’s what’s on the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey, places where Democrats hold the structural advantage and have the upper hand on most of the big issues of the moment. The fundamentals in both places favor the blue team, but the red team thinks it has a way to depress the Democratic base and tip independent voters in their favor by focusing on Jones’s texts and the explosive issue of transgender athletes.

Like Democrats in 2024, Republicans this year are saying that it’s not about the fundamentals, it’s about a vibe shift that’s happening in the country. It’s not about the economy or pocketbook issues, it’s about a shift that’s changed the rules of politics. 

Certainly it may be enough to lead to Jones’s loss, which would be the first split ticket in Virginia for attorney general since 2005, but will it be enough for the top of the ticket?  

One imagines that Democrats and independents in both places will be thinking nationally and acting locally.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@THEHILL.COM. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION 

Trump Job Performance

Average Approval: 41.4%

Average Disapproval: 56%

Net Score: -14.6 points

Change from last week: No change 

Change from one month ago: ↓ 4.6 points 

[Average includes: Ipsos/Reuters 40% approve – 58% disapprove; Pew Research Center 40% approve – 58% disapprove; NYT/Siena University 43% approve – 54% disapprove; NPR/Marist College 41% approve – 53% disapprove; Marquette University Law School 43% approve – 57% disapprove]

Largest-ever majority says federal government too powerful 

Do you think the federal government today has too much power?

Now / 2021

All adults 62% / 54%

Democrats 66% / 25%

Republicans 58% / 80%

[Gallup survey of 1,000 adults, Sept. 2-16]

ON THE SIDE: BUT FIRST, COFFEE

Writer Ellen Cushing explores the durability of coffee demand despite skyrocketing prices for The Atlantic: “Coffee is fixed in our culture, our economy, our rituals, and our brain chemistry. It is the country’s most consumed beverage aside from water, and its psychoactive ingredient, caffeine, is by far the most popular drug on Earth. On any given day, an American is likelier to drink coffee than they are to exercise, pray, or read for pleasure. The U.S. has more Starbucks locations than public libraries. … It is so crucial to the machinery of capitalism that many employers give it away, like pens or any other essential office supply. It is the only consumable I can think of that people regularly joke about dying without (which is funny because, again, it provides nothing our bodies actually need to live). It is the thing in a big carafe at every meeting, and on the menu at nearly every restaurant, and built into our language as a widely understood shorthand for ‘having a conversation with another person.’”

PRIME CUTS 

Trump IRS said to be preparing crackdown on Dems ahead of midterms: Wall Street Journal: “The Trump administration is preparing sweeping changes at the Internal Revenue Service that would allow the agency to pursue criminal inquiries of left-leaning groups more easily, according to people familiar with the matter. A senior IRS official involved in the effort has drawn up a list of potential targets that includes major Democratic donors, some of the people said. The undertaking aims to install allies of President Trump at the IRS criminal-investigative division, or IRS-CI, to exert firmer control over the unit and weaken the involvement of IRS lawyers in criminal investigations, officials said. The proposed changes could open the door to politically motivated probes and are being driven by Gary Shapley, an adviser to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Shapley has told people that he is going to replace Guy Ficco, the chief of the investigative unit, who has been at the agency for decades, and that Shapley has been putting together a list of donors and groups he believes IRS investigators should look at. Among those on the list are the billionaire Democratic donor George Soros and his affiliated groups.”

SCOTUS looks poised to deal crippling blow to House Dems: New York Times: “Without Section 2 [of the Voting Rights Act], which has been interpreted to require the creation of majority-minority districts, Republicans could eliminate upward of a dozen Democratic-held districts across the South. … It’s not clear whether this would occur by next year’s midterm elections, with a court ruling likely next summer, but the new seats would eventually be enough to make Republicans favored to win the House even if they lost the popular vote by a wide margin. … Even in the seven-to-eight-seat scenario, Democrats might need to win the popular vote by five percentage points to merely have a 50-50 shot to win the House. In recent decades, five-point victories in the House popular vote have generally happened during ‘wave’ elections, like in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018, when one party ends up winning a large majority. And only once in the past 30 years has it happened during a presidential election year: Barack Obama’s win in 2008.”

Sherrill doubles down on opioid allegations against Ciattarelli: New York Times: “The race for New Jersey governor has taken a sharp, unexpected turn less than a month before Election Day with the opioid crisis taking center stage amid explosive charges by the Democratic nominee, Representative Mikie Sherrill. The latest twist in the race came on Monday when Ms. Sherrill … again blamed her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, for spreading misinformation about opioids. [Saying] that a medical publication company that Mr. Ciattarelli owned until 2017 had made it easier for people to get prescription opioids. … Mr. Ciattarelli’s campaign has flatly denied the charge and said it planned to file a defamation lawsuit against Ms. Sherrill this week. … (The campaign has twice before threatened to sue over unrelated issues, but has yet to follow through.)”

Ciattarelli gains, still trails by 6 points: Quinnipiac University: “Less than three weeks until Election Day, in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a slight lead over Republican opponent Jack Ciattarelli as 50 percent of likely voters back Sherrill, 44 percent back Ciattarelli … according to a Quinnipiac University New Jersey poll of likely voters. … This compares to Quinnipiac University’s September 17 poll when Sherrill received 49 percent support, Ciattarelli received 41 percent support.”

Where to look for clues in this year’s New Jersey returns: NBC News: “New Jersey delivered some of the nation’s most dramatic coalition shifts in the 2024 presidential election. Now, those shifts are setting the table for this year’s hard-fought governor’s race — and raising big questions nationally about where communities like these are going in future elections. For starters, President Donald Trump’s 2024 surge among nonwhite voters in the New York City metro area caught much of the political world by surprise. But questions remain about whether Republicans can sustain this coalition long term. … Meanwhile, Democratic candidates have found growing strength in New Jersey’s shore towns, affluent suburbs populated by college-educated professionals, and places popular with retirees. These communities will become crucial laboratories going forward, testing whether this 12-year political realignment can outlast Trump.”

Mamdani uses Fox interview to talk to Trump: New York Times: “Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City, directly addressed President Trump during a Fox News interview on Wednesday, vowing to work with his administration to help fulfill his own campaign pledge to make the city more affordable. The direct-to-camera appeal also included digs at his closest rival, former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, and the current mayor, Eric Adams. ‘I will not be a mayor like Mayor Adams, who will call you to figure out how to stay out of jail,’ Mr. Mamdani said. ‘I won’t be a disgraced governor like Andrew Cuomo, who will call you to ask how to win this election. I can do those things on my own.’ … Most polls in the mayoral race show Mr. Mamdani well ahead of his opponents, the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, and Mr. Cuomo, who is running as an independent.”

Obama joins ad war for California gerrymander: Associated Press: “Barack Obama is entering the fight for U.S. House control by appearing in a 30-second ad urging California voters to approve a November ballot proposal that could add as many as five Democrat-held House seats in California. Proposition 50 would dramatically reshape California’s congressional districts with the intent of adding Democratic seats in Congress. It’s crafted to gain Democratic House control, aimed at offsetting President Donald Trump’s moves in Texas and elsewhere to help win more Republican seats in the 2026 midterm election. ‘Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,’ Obama says in the ad, looking directly into the camera. ‘You can stop Republicans in their tracks.’”

SHORT ORDER

Maine Senate primary sets up proxy fight between Schumer, Sanders — The Hill

Polling error, white working-class voters and Susan Collins — The Liberal Patriot

Moulton, 46, makes age the issue in declaring primary challenge of Markey, 79 — The Hill 

Former Gov. Edwards dashes Democrats’ hopes for Louisiana Senate bid — Shreveport Times

Allred, Talarico pound the pavement in South Texas in battle for Hispanic vote — Texas Tribune 

Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett hints she might still join crowded Texas Senate primary — CBS News

Cornyn, Paxton poised to burn bales of cash in Senate primary brawl – Politico

GOP eyes additional seat with North Carolina gerrymander — New York Times

Former LA schools chief launches challenge to Mayor Karen Bass — The Hill

The candidate presumed lost at sea who might win a local race in New York — Associated Press

TABLE TALK: WHO, EXACTLY?

“Some people have said I was the most qualified candidate ever to run for president.” — Former Vice President Kamala Harris in an interview promoting her campaign memoir. 

Stranglehold 

“To be fair, I’m not really regretful of that one.” — Graham Platner, the progressive populist candidate for Senate in Maine’s Democratic primary, in an interview with CNN about newly discovered deleted social media posts in which, aside from calling himself a communist, he says that all police are “bastards” and that rural white Americans “actually are” racist; he also said of Republican rocker Ted Nugent, “As a combat veteran, that [motherf—er] makes me want to puke when he spews his warmongering macho [bulls—]. Suck a [d—], Ted.”

MAILBAG

“I love NewsNation, Chris Stirewalt, and the Whole Hog newsletter. But missing is coverage of national security issues and what’s going on in Asia, most especially, China. President Trump’s chaotic ‘weaving,’ the nature of Washington, and our traditional inward focus means we’re missing major threats to our well-being. PS Was the Oct. 3rd Live Review one and done, or is it recurring?” — Paul Withington, West Chester, Pa.

Mr. Withington,

We love you, too. But if you’re looking to me for Asia news and analysis, I’m afraid you’re barking up the wrong pundit! I can tell you about how they vote in Canton, Ohio, or Pekin, Illinois, or Tokio, Texas, but not much about Asia beyond that. 

I do know that the domestic politics around U.S.-China policy are and will remain one of the hardest nuts to crack for both parties. As President Trump is learning now, going hard anti-China is very popular with working-class voters, but the consequences of such policies are themselves very unpopular. Everybody wants America to get tough on China, but almost nobody wants to give up cheap imported goods or see soybeans rotting in American fields.

As for the Whole Hog video town hall, it was great fun and I definitely think we’ll be seeing some more bold experimentation with an interactive format in the future. In the meantime, stay tuned for our regular weekly installments on YouTube.

All best,

c 

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FOR DESSERT: DON’T DEW THE CRIME IF YOU CAN’T…

Oregonian: “The felony case against a woman caught driving a hot-wired car ended late last month — not with the bang of a gavel, but the fizz of a soda. Peter Higginbotham, whose 1996 Toyota Camry disappeared from the streets of South Portland last year, agreed to drop the case in an unusual example of what’s known as a civil compromise. … Higginbotham agreed to accept a bottle of Baja Blast Mountain Dew as enough to fully resolve the criminal case. The 30-year-old programmer says he was only staying true to the jokey bumper sticker that adorned his stolen ride: ‘The book value of my car is one Baja Blast.’ … The car was declared totalled by his insurance, which paid out about $1,700, according to Higginbotham. He said he prefers riding his motorcycle or taking public transit while in the city, and he has since purchased a new car.”