Artificial intelligence and automation could force roughly 11 million workers—about 7% of all employees in the United States—to find new professions by 2035.
So says a report released Tuesday by management consulting giant McKinsey, which predicts automation could reduce labor demand in the U.S. by 21%—roughly 36 million jobs—over the next decade.
While economic growth would allow about 25 million workers to remain in their current fields, the remaining 11 million may need to find a new occupation altogether. This means about 770,000 workers would need to switch occupational groups every year, or 3.6 times the historical average.
Like other technological revolutions before it, the age of AI may ultimately create more jobs than it destroys. Still, it may require “the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history,” the report predicts.
Even workers who can remain in their current professions will have to adjust, with the report predicting that more than 70%of workers could require “some level of reinvention.”
AI and automation will affect some professions more than others, with office and administrative support; agriculture, fishing, and forestry; and technology/analytics seeing the biggest potential impact, the report states.
The labor market has been stagnant in recent years. While mass layoffs have failed to materialize, job growth has been sluggish and turnover has been low.
Data published yesterday showed that job openings fell to a five-month low at the end of August, while the rate of “voluntary quits”—a metric that economists use as a proxy for worker confidence—stayed near a six-year low, according to CNN.
Glassdoor’s Employee Confidence Index dropped to its third record low of the year in September, reflecting anxieties over job security, AI, and the broader economy.
