Voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday to weigh in on critical races for governor, mayor and more as observers look for clues about the national mood heading into next year’s midterms.
New Jersey and Virginia are holding high-stakes elections for governor, among other top posts. In New York City, Democrat Zohran Mamdani is running against former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa to succeed outgoing Mayor Eric Adams.
California voters, meanwhile, will weigh in on a new set of congressional maps pushed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D).
Here are the key races to watch in Tuesday’s critical 2025 elections:
Virginia
The Old Dominion is holding key elections for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and the House of Delegates.
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is running against Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) since Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is term-limited. Polling has shown Spanberger with a comfortable lead over Earle-Sears, with a Decision Desk HQ polling average of the race showing the Democrat ahead at 53 percent to Earle-Sears’s 43 percent.
But the GOP Virginia lieutenant governor and her party have sought to tie Spanberger to a scandal that has swirled around the Democratic challenger to Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) in the final stretch of the race.
Jay Jones, who’s running against Miyares, has faced blowback over resurfaced text messages from 2022 in which he talked about shooting former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert (R) and suggested Gilbert and his wife were “breeding little fascists.”
Jones has since apologized for the text messages. He’s also looked to nationalize the race, tying Miyares to Trump. A Decision HQ polling average of the race shows Miyares edging out Jones 47 percent to 45 percent.
Controversy has also rocked Republicans with Virginia lieutenant governor’s race.
Republican John Reid refused to end his candidacy earlier this year when Republicans found a social media account that has been linked to Reid shared sexually explicit content of men. Reid, who is openly gay, has said the account isn’t his and said he’s being discriminated against over his sexuality. Reid is running against Democrat Ghazala Hashmi, in a race polls also suggest is close
Control over the House of Delegates is also at play on Tuesday as Republicans look to flip Democrats’ 51-48 majority.
New Jersey
Republican Jack Ciattarelli is hoping to change his party’s fortunes in the Garden State and defeat Democrat Mikie Sherrill to succeed term-limited New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
Recent elections have shown that Democrats can’t take the Garden State for granted: Murphy narrowly won reelection in 2021 by 3 points against Ciattarelli, and former Vice President Harris only won the state in November by about 6 points.
Republicans are hoping to make the governor’s race a referendum on continued Democratic governance as voters there grapple with rising utilities costs and affordability concerns.
Meanwhile, Democrats have sought to nationalize the race and tie Ciattarelli to Trump. Democrats have slammed the Trump administration for freezing funds over the Hudson River Tunnel Project, known as the Gateway tunnel, and suggested the former GOP assemblyman wouldn’t be able to stand up to the president when needed.
Democrats are feeling cautiously optimistic about their chances on Tuesday, though concerns over Black and Latino/Hispanic voter turnout have rocked the Sherrill campaign. A Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Sherrill at 50 percent and Ciattarelli at close to 46 percent.
New York City
Independents, moderate Democrats and even Republicans are racing to give Cuomo a boost over Mamdani in the final stretch of the New York City mayoral election to succeed Adams.
Ever since Mamdani trounced the former New York governor in the Democratic mayoral primary, polling has shown steady momentum for the New York state assemblyman, who could become the city’s first millennial and Muslim mayor if elected on Tuesday.
Mamdani has been buoyed by several different dynamics: A message around affordability that’s resonated with voters, offering voters a vision when much of the party has been stuck in largely anti-Trump messaging, a Republican candidate who’s playing a major spoiler to Cuomo and recent endorsements from holdouts like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
Politicians like Adams, moderate Democrat Rep. Tom Suozzi and even Trump have offered nods to Cuomo in the last few weeks, though it may not be enough to overcome his deficit against Mamdani. A Decision Desk HQ polling average has Mamdani leading double digits over Cuomo at 45 percent to 32 percent.
One other race to watch in the city is the Manhattan district attorney’s race. Incumbent Alvin Bragg (D), who secured a conviction against Trump over a 2016 hush money probe, is running against Republican Maud Moran.
California
California voters are weighing in on a key ballot measure that could give Democrats four or five pick-up opportunities in the House next year as both parties race to redraw their maps ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Californians will vote on Proposition 50, which would allow the state to temporarily bypass the state’s independent redistricting commission and pass a new Democratic-friendly congressional map before 2026. The measure stipulates that the commission would oversee drawing California’s House map again after the 2030 U.S. Census.
Proposition 50 was borne out of a broader redistricting battle that first started in Texas and has seen stretched across the country. The White House and national Republicans have pushed states like Texas, Missouri, Indiana and others to redraw their congressional maps before next year’s elections as the GOP braces for a challenging midterm environment.
The GOP’s redistricting push turned into a national tit-for-tat as Democrats have looked to California and elsewhere to try and neutralize some of the gains Republicans are expected to make.
What was initially seen as a big gamble for California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has turned into what’s expected to be a clear win as polling has shown the ballot initiative projected to pass on Tuesday – particularly in the absence of a competitive opposition campaign against the ballot measure.
A Tuesday win would bode well for Newsom who’s long been viewed as a key 2028 contender and who’s recently left the door open to a White House run.
Pennsylvania
Voters will be weighing in on retention races on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court with Justices David Wecht, Christine Donohue and Kevin Dougherty, all Democrats, running for 10-year terms.
The state Supreme Court has a 5-2 Democratic edge, meaning the balance of power is on the line in this Tuesday election. The retention races have attracted millions of dollars, though it’s usually difficult to oust incumbents during retention elections.
Only one incumbent, a Democratic appellate judge, has lost a retention race since they were started in 1968, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball from Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
State Supreme Courts have only grown importance, particularly in swing states, where they’ve been the key decider on issues like election disputes, redistricting and abortion access.
Texas
Over a dozen candidates are vying to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), who represented Texas’ 18th Congressional District in Houston and died in March.
Among those running to fill the remainder of Turner’s term include former Houston City Councilmember Amanda Edwards (D), Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D).
A candidate needs to receive at least half of the vote in order to avoid a runoff; if no candidate outright wins the race, the two top vote-getters head into a runoff for the seat. Democrats are expected to win the seat, and the special election will mean that Republicans can’t afford any defections on passing legislation.
Mississippi
A redistricting battle has offered Democrats a chance to break Republicans’ supermajority in the state Senate as the party looks to make inroads in the South. Mississippi was required to implement new maps after a three-judge panel ruled that the previous state legislative map violated the Voting Rights Act.
The new map has given Democrats the opportunity to compete in a handful of districts, though the state legislature is still firmly Republican-dominated.
The U.S. Supreme Court last month reheard a case over Louisiana’s congressional map and the extent of considering race in drawing election maps, with the conservative majority seeming inclined to restrict the use of race. That opinion, which is expected next year, could have implications on Mississippi’s state maps and other redistricting litigation under way.
