Amid an ongoing tiff with President Donald Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune recently joked that public service might be losing its thrill.
“If he could find somebody else to do this job, it might be a big relief,” he told reporters last week after Trump declined to voice confidence in Thune as Senate GOP leader.
But Thune said in an interview that he, for now, anticipates continuing his three-decade congressional career by seeking reelection in 2028.
“My assumption is, going in, that I am,” he said last week after he was asked when he would make a decision about a fifth Senate term representing South Dakota.
But he also left open the possibility things could change as he deals with a mercurial president, a precarious political environment for Republicans and questions that have bubbled up within corners of the GOP about whether he would pursue reelection.
“You know, every election has an impact on that, so we’ll see how it comes out in November,” he added, before reiterating that “the assumption” is that he will run.
Thune’s early assessment of his 2028 plans come as he fights to win elections set to take place this year — the midterm contests that will determine if Republicans keep the Senate majority and the subsequent closed-door, secret-ballot leadership elections that will determine if he remains top leader for another two years.
Thune, according to most GOP senators, is secure in that job, even as Trump sowed doubt in an Oval Office gaggle last week when he was asked about his views of Thune’s leadership.
“We’re going to find out, and I’ll let you know,” said the president, who has repeatedly pushed Thune to pass legislation, the SAVE America elections bill, that does not have the votes to advance.
Even before the latest back-and-forth between the two men, private speculation has swirled around the Capitol about whether Thune might decide to give up his Senate seat just a few years after realizing his long-fought dream of leading the Senate GOP.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if John Thune has had enough,” said one GOP senator who added that “no one would blame him” if he decided to retire in 2028. Like others quoted in this story, the senator was granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Two other Senate Republicans, who both claimed no special knowledge of his intentions, predicted that Thune would retire in 2028. Another GOP senator accused Thune’s right-wing critics in the GOP of trying to use the SAVE America Act controversy to drive down his popularity back in South Dakota, while another Republican chalked any talk of retirement up to “gossip and speculation” versus credible information coming from inside Thune’s orbit.
That’s not to say that Thune isn’t mindful of the obstacles he could face should he choose to seek another term. One is the possibility that Trump could endorse against incumbents in 2028 as he has this year, essentially driving Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and John Cornyn of Texas out of Congress.
The 2028-cycle Republican thought to be most at risk is Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, but Thune in the interview jokingly acknowledged his own potential vulnerability.
“I mean, if it were today, he probably — I’d probably be on that list,” he said with a laugh.
Speaking about 2028 incumbents generally, Thune said that while Trump’s endorsement “makes a huge difference … a year from now, we could be in a totally different political footing than where we are now, and the world could look a lot different, so it’s hard to say” what effect the president might have.
Without prompting, Thune also made note in the interview of his state’s history for high-profile Republican retirement announcements. President Calvin Coolidge, he recounted, traveled to South Dakota in 1927 and announced there he would not seek reelection to a second full term in 1928.
“I’m not hinting that that’s something impressive that I might follow,” he added.
Some Senate Republicans are openly encouraging Thune to run again.
His GOP delegation mate, Sen. Mike Rounds, described Thune’s standing in South Dakota as “positive.”
“You’ve got two things: You’ve got social media out there, which is driven by a lot of outside sources and some real whack jobs,” Rounds said. “And then you’ve got normal people that see John, respect him, know him, and know what he’s all about — and those are the people that vote.”
“If he decides to run again, and I hope he does, if he does, [the] people of South Dakota will support him,” he added.
Michael Card, a professor emeritus at the University of South Dakota, predicted that Thune would have to spend more time back in the state but that he was in “good shape” if he decides to run for reelection.
“As long as he is seen as pushing the farm bill forward, I don’t think there will really be any real strong candidate,” he added. “And even if they were a strong candidate, they wouldn’t be as strong as John … who knows everybody.”
It’s not the first time fellow Republicans have wondered privately about Thune’s future.
Frustrated by Thune’s lack of support for his efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election, Trump backed a primary challenge to Thune ahead of the 2022 midterms. After Thune made comments to the Black Hills Pioneer in December 2021 that his wife wanted him back home and he was seriously considering retirement, GOP senators made a crash lobbying effort to convince him to run for reelection.
Thune decided to run, no credible primary challenger emerged, and he earned nearly 70 percent of the vote in the November 2022 general election.
Thune and Trump repaired their relationship in the lead-up to the 2024 election, with Trump staying out of the race to choose Mitch McConnell’s successor as Senate GOP leader. The two worked closely last year to pass Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and confirm hundreds of presidential nominees — including by changing the chamber’s rules to approve them faster.
But the two men’s relationship has since seen public splits as Trump has applied a single-minded focus to passing the SAVE America Act — including by nuking the filibuster, something Thune claims is off the table for most Senate Republicans.
Trump told reporters last week that his relationship with Thune was “fine” and that they have a “good relationship” even as Trump hammered him to “get his job done” and pass the GOP elections bill. Some GOP senators have privately predicted that Trump will continue to ramp up the pressure on Thune, though they believe how far he goes will depend on what happens in the midterms.
Some online conservative activists have floated the idea of trying to recruit a 2028 primary challenger for Thune. But the South Dakota Republican Party rejected an attempt earlier this summer to censure Thune over his “failure in regards to the SAVE America Act.”
Thune told reporters Tuesday he had spoken to Trump earlier in the day about “issues that he cares about.”
“I wouldn’t say I’m isolated, no,” Thune said, while adding that he has “been very clear about the prospects for the SAVE America Act.”
