If your week involves an interstate run through the nation’s midsection, the atmosphere is not cooperating. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Slight Risk across the central Plains into the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi valleys, with severe wind gusts and hail expected through the afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes southeast.
The headline danger is wind. The SPC warns that any storm line that organizes over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley could produce gusts above 75 mph, strong enough to flip high-profile vehicles, down trees across the road, and knock out power to the traffic signals you rely on.
What to Expect
The setup favors severe wind gusts and isolated large hail, with the most robust line segments capable of gusts topping 75 mph. Add to that a soaking: the Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from the central Plains through the Upper Great Lakes, so flash flooding is in play alongside the wind. Storms build each afternoon and can persist well after dark.
Road Conditions
Wind is the driver’s problem here. A 75 mph gust hits a loaded SUV, box truck, or travel trailer like a wall, and hail turns dry pavement slick in seconds. The classic summer trap is the downburst that dumps blinding rain with almost no warning, so make sure you are riding on tires with enough tread to shed standing water before heading out.
The Thursday Wild Card
The threat may consolidate on Thursday. Guidance suggests an organized convective system could migrate across the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi valleys Thursday into Thursday night, aided by a strengthening jet of 50 to 70 knots near 700 mb, with the potential to grow into a significant severe system. Separately, storms firing to the lee of the Blue Ridge across Virginia could produce strong wind gusts. Confidence is lower this far out, so treat it as a corridor to watch rather than a lock.
Timing
Wednesday’s action runs from the afternoon into the overnight across the central Plains and Missouri Valley. The strongest wind window rides with any organized line over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Thursday brings the possible larger complex through the Missouri and Mississippi valleys, and by Friday the threat should ease as high pressure builds back over the interior West.
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