Earlier this year, U.S.-Mexico security experts played around with the unfathomable idea that the U.S. was preparing for unilateral military action in Mexico. In February, the Trump administration declared five Mexican-based cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, laying the legal groundwork for rationalizing military intervention.
The rhetoric changed in September, when President Trump shifted his attention to Venezuela as the beacon of drug trafficking networks threatening U.S. interests. Reports of American warships stationed in the southern Caribbean and U.S. bombings of small craft allegedly carrying drugs harkened a change from the single-minded focus on fentanyl production in Mexico.
The Trump administration appeared to have let up pressure on the Mexican government to attack illicit fentanyl production and transportation. But this is now changing as news is filtering out of U.S. military preparations for a potential mission in Mexico to attack cartels.
The switch to Venezuela was a surprise to those of us studying drug trafficking: Fentanyl from Mexico is the leading cause for overdose deaths in the U.S. Drugs trafficked through and from Venezuela are not synthetic opioids, but cocaine shipped to West Africa and Europe, with very little making its way to the U.S. Fentanyl, not cocaine, is the leading contributor to U.S. overdose deaths.
The through-line between drug trafficking and a rationale for U.S. military action in Venezuela is weak — so weak, in fact, that a group of bipartisan senators, including Rand Paul (R-Ky.), are mobilizing against Trump unilaterally declaring war on Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
Additionally, faced with threatened tariffs that would undermine Mexico’s economy, President Claudia Sheinbaum opted to appease Trump. Since February, she has sent 55 drug traffickers to the United States for prosecution, sidestepping onerous extradition processes, and ordered security forces to take down several large fentanyl production laboratories.
Despite these concessions and the threat to Mexico’s political stability, Trump continues to talk about invading Mexico.
The shift to Venezuela was likely welcome news by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who would have to deal with the fallout of military action in Mexico, and President Sheinbaum, who would have to reckon with calls for her ouster for allowing such an action.
Mexican drug traffickers, secure in the knowledge that they can continue shipping fentanyl to the United States, are likely the most elated. Perhaps the biggest winner is the Jalisco New Generation Cartel because it buys them time to further consolidate their power over networks previously dominated by the Sinaloa Cartel.
In the aftermath of the arrests and extraditions of Joaquín “El Chapo” López Guzmán, several of his sons, referred to as “Los Chapitos,” and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, this Sinaloa Cartel fractured into several groups currently fighting with one another for control.
This vacuum has allowed the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to make inroads into the production and trafficking of fentanyl, previously controlled by the Sinaloa Cartel, and establish new alliances with some of the smaller players in criminal networks throughout the country.
We suspect this reconfiguration is happening because of the dramatic decrease in violent crimes since Shienbaum took office almost two years ago. In recent years, the number of homicides year-to-year were the highest in recorded history, but violent crimes have been cut by one-third in the last 12 months.
There are two reasons for this decrease. First, Sheinbaum’s effective security policies, particularly those promoting collaboration among different branches of law enforcement to target local criminal groups.
Second is the reduction of conflict between criminal groups, which is a testament to Jalisco New Generation’s consolidation of power. There is no need to resort to violence precisely because they have certainty in controlling key regions throughout the country, including those previously dominated by the Sinaloa Cartel.
The presence of U.S. troops in Mexico will severely and irreparably undermine Sheinbaum’s counter-narcotics policies, which are netting results. Crippling the Sheinbaum administration will give rise to an even bigger and stronger enemy south of the border. It is only a matter of time before Jalisco New Generation, which is significantly more ruthless than Sinaloa ever was, announces its complete takeover of the fentanyl markets.
Rather than sidestep and weaken the Mexican government, the Trump administration should partner with President Sheinbaum to jointly attack cartels and the root causes of drug-trafficking. Such a collaboration would send a clear signal to Jalisco New Generation to walk back its expansion efforts and lead to an effective counter-narcotics policy.
Gladys McCormick is the Jay and Debe Moskowitz Endowed Chair in Mexico-U.S. relations at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University. She has previously served as a senior associate at the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington D.C.
