President Trump’s upcoming Middle East trip, his first foreign tour since returning to the White House, is more than diplomatic theatre. It could mark a genuine geopolitical turning point that ends the war that has torn the region apart since Oct. 7, 2023.
But that would require something other than the standard Trumpian bluster: a focused action to compels the Arab states to break totally with Hamas, and then force Israel to step aside.
In short, Trump must strongarm both sides. There is no middle ground left. The default outcome, with Israel planning to intensify its Gaza war, would be a true cataclysm.
The landscape is not unpromising, because despite Trump’s penchant for bombast he has never been a warmonger. His foreign policy record is defined less by strength than by showmanship. He speaks loudly, but carries a light stick. His acceptance in recent days of a ceasefire with the Iran-backed Houthis — widely seen as a betrayal of Israeli interests — and his quiet drift toward a nuclear deal with Iran that looks increasingly similar to Obama’s, are evidence that Trump prefers deals over fights, even if problematic.
That contradiction is now at the heart of the Gaza war. Back in January, Trump pressured Netanyahu into a temporary ceasefire with Hamas. Then in February, he reversed course and gave the green light to resume military operations. But what Trump wanted was a short, sharp campaign — not the prolonged, grinding conflict Netanyahu seems ready to deliver.
Israel’s Security Cabinet approved an expansion of the war this week – but delayed it until after Trump’s trip this week to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. A key Netanyahu ally, ultranationalist finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, said the goal was long-term occupation of Gaza. “There will be no retreat from the territories we have conquered, not even in exchange for hostages,” he said.
The Israel public is not behind this. Polls show a majority now believes Netanyahu is prolonging the war for political reasons — to hold his fragile coalition together. Far-right figures like Smotrich have threatened to topple the government if Netanyahu ends the war. Israeli reservists, who have been serving hundreds of days a year, are protesting renewed deployments. And most Israelis — by wide margins — prioritize the return of hostages over the elusive goal of eliminating Hamas.
Meanwhile, a serious alternative to endless war is already on the table. In late February, Egypt — backed by the Arab League — proposed a postwar framework that included transitioning Gaza to Palestinian Authority governance with Gulf state financing. Hamas did not reject it outright. But Israel dismissed the plan, objecting to the empowerment of the Palestinian Authority — an institution Netanyahu has spent years weakening to justify expanding Israel’s hold on the West Bank.
So next week, Trump’s role is critical.
Arab governments — Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar — don’t want Hamas in power. They don’t want Gaza to collapse. And they certainly don’t want to fund an Israeli military occupation. But they won’t act decisively unless they are convinced that the U.S. is fully committed to seeing it through. Trump’s visit gives him a chance to make that commitment clear and to push them, publicly and privately, to act with urgency.
Trump should lay down the law and compel the Arab states to cut off all remaining channels of financing and arms to Hamas, enforce disarmament, and support a legitimate Palestinian governing structure in Gaza. That’s not a favor to Israel but a move in their own strategic interest.
But it won’t matter unless Israel steps aside. And that means Trump must send a clear and unmistakable message to Netanyahu: the U.S. will not support an open-ended occupation, will not bankroll it, and will not shield it diplomatically. If Netanyahu wants to go it alone, he will be alone.
Trump has more leverage than he may realize. The very fact that Israeli officials have confirmed that the next phase of the war will not begin until after Trump’s trip is evidence. And the Arab world is primed for this. There is more practicality among these countries than before — there is desperation to end the war and the willingness to reach peace with Israel may actually extend beyond Saudi Arabia to even the new regime in Syria. It requires deft diplomacy combined with an iron fist to bring it together.
If Trump allows Netanyahu to drag Israel into a renewed occupation of Gaza, he will own the outcome — the civilian deaths, the international blowback, the deepening of radicalization, and the possible deaths of the remaining hostages. That is not Trump’s brand; there is no art in such a deal.
There are already hints of a different path. A Reuters report this week suggested a U.S. official may oversee Gaza’s postwar administration — a striking shift that gives new weight to Trump’s February remarks about America “owning” Gaza. At the time, the idea sounded absurd. Now it looks like a rough sketch of a real plan: a demilitarized Gaza under international supervision, rebuilt with Gulf funding, and governed by the Palestinian Authority or a transitional body with broad support.
That path is far from perfect, but it is achievable — if Trump forces the region to move. It requires determined Arab cooperation, full Hamas disarmament, and a total Israeli withdrawal from any reoccupied territory. That’s a heavy lift. But it’s the only alternative to a rapidly approaching quagmire.
Dan Perry is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe-Africa editor of the Associated Press, the former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and the author of two books.
