Data is increasingly available on almost every aspect of business: market research, sales, social media, financial metrics. But just because it’s available, should it be used for all decision-making? We asked our Fast Company Impact Council how they balance data-driven decision-making with their gut instinct. The answers may surprise you.
1. USE ALL AVAILABLE INFORMATION AT YOUR DISPOSAL
Data-driven decision-making and gut instinct is a false dichotomy. Using data to make decisions often requires significant amounts of gut instinct as no study or metric ever delivers certainty. Being a good product and experience leader is about using all of the available information at your disposal from the data, your team, your long-range objectives, and your lived experience to make the smartest decisions possible. — Peter Smart, Fantasy
2. SET A TIMELINE FOR DECISIONS
My company is completely committed to a data-driven approach. We collect data on every function, customer, product action, and employee and I see that as a real strength of what we do as an organization. However, the data almost never provides “the answer.” It’s like talking to my high school daughter about future college and job choices. We gather as much information as we can (in the time we have), but we have to decide with imperfect information. Work is exactly the same. The key is setting a timeline for decisions and gathering as much information as you can before making the final decision, with your gut helping to balance risk. — Thomas Scott, Wrike
3. PATTERN RECOGNITION AND EXPERIENCE MATTER MORE
Data shows you what worked. It rarely tells you what’s next. In a market evolving as fast as agentic AI, pattern recognition and experience matter more than any dashboard. I use data to frame the problem, then trust my instincts and move fast. Hesitate, and the window closes. Make the call, learn quickly, and iterate. That’s how you stay ahead. — Lior Div, 7AI
4. DATA IS OFTEN RICHER IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR
Data and gut instinct, which I translate as domain knowledge, work together to increase the value of information and guide better decisions. A data-driven decision implies confidence in the data accuracy and the ability to make unbiased decisions based on inferences. The challenge is that data is often richer in the rear-view mirror than it is forward-looking. Domain knowledge provides the basis for what must be true about the data, the dependencies, and risks associated with realizing the planned outcome. It should not negate the inferences of high-quality data, but support the right questions and qualifications of the data at hand. — Andrea Montecchi, Oliver Wight
5. GUT TELLS YOU WHAT’S POSSIBLE
Data tells you what happened. Gut tells you what’s possible. I’ve been in beauty for 30 years. I’ve seen brands over-index on numbers and miss the cultural moment entirely. Data isn’t the decision—it’s the starting point. I live in the metrics. But building a brand around “less is best” wasn’t a spreadsheet call. That was instinct from decades of watching what women actually want. The best decisions I’ve made are when the data gave me enough confidence to take the leap my gut was already pointing toward. — Kim Wileman, No Makeup Makeup
6. DATA CREATES GUARDRAILS AND CONSISTENCY
I believe the best decisions come from balancing both data and instinct. We typically start with data to create guardrails and consistency, for example, using sales trends, historical performance, and launch velocity to plan inventory for new product launches. But especially in creative, fast-moving businesses like ours, there are moments where experience and intuition matter too, so we allow our team’s judgment to override the model when something feels different about the opportunity. — Tammy Nelson, CONQUERing
7. USE DATA TO VALIDATE, NOT DECIDE
When you’re innovating in spaces where data doesn’t exist yet, you have to lead with instinct. Then use data to validate, not decide. We start with a deep understanding of customer pain points to identify opportunities and shape the concept, then validate it with data. Instinct sets the direction. That balance has driven everything from early e-commerce investments to product innovation. — Keith Mann, Pella Corporation
8. INSTINCT TO IDENTIFY THE EMOTIONAL “X-FACTOR”
In the music industry, you have to be fluent in both. With the globalization of music, we have more data than ever, but data alone can’t predict a cultural moment. When choosing a single or a major campaign, I use data to understand the landscape, but I rely on instinct to identify the emotional “X-factor” that will actually resonate with listeners. — Logan Mulvey, GoDigital Music
9. AI IS BECOMING BETTER THAN HUMANS AT DECISIONS
Much of what is said about AI and leadership has become a cliche: Humans bring judgment, machines bring data, combine both. The reality is more sophisticated. On a growing number of decisions, AI is becoming better than we are and our instinct to verify can degrade its performance and our own. The leadership skill that matters most now is discernment—knowing which decisions to delegate to AI, which to take with it as a thinking partner and which to keep human because deciding is itself part of the answer. That judgment, made honestly, is what separates leaders who use AI well from those who either surrender to it or hold it at arm’s length. — Pierre Le Manh, Project Management Institute
10. FEEDBACK LOOP STRENGTHENS MODELS AND INTUITION
As chief scientific officer, I see data as the foundation, but not the full picture. Data sharpens the question, reveals patterns, and reduces bias. Gut instinct, when grounded in experience, helps interpret ambiguity and act when data is incomplete. Use data to inform decisions, trust instinct to move forward, then measure outcomes rigorously. Over time, this feedback loop strengthens both our models and our intuition. — Tara Zedayko, Ollie
11. INSTINCT WITHOUT VALIDATION IS GUESSWORK
Gut instinct is rooted in pattern recognition. But instinct without validation is guesswork. For me, I start with an instinct, then use data to pressure-test it. If the data contradicts my theory, I dive deeper into why. The goal isn’t data versus instinct; it’s using data to sharpen judgment and make better decisions over time. — Darren Person, Cengage
12. FEW DECISIONS ARE PURELY BLACK AND WHITE
Most big decisions in business are complex, and more often than not, there is both a data and a human factor involved to consider. For example, if the data shows you can’t make money on a piece of business, but you know it will build loyalty and trust with a buyer for future opportunities, you may choose to move forward anyway. If you are faced with discontinuing a product line based on poor performance, but a trusted employee believes they can turn it around, you may bet on the person rather than the numbers. Business is full of these moments. Very few decisions are purely black and white—data or no data. — Tony Bedard, Frontier Co-op
13. EXPERIENCE FORTIFIES INSTINCT OVER TIME
Making decisions based on the best data available is important. But while data paint a picture of trends, averages, and most likely outcomes, they can’t always provide the personal, human perspective. I think that the best business decision-making relies on both data and humanity; so when I make decisions, I look at the information in front of me, and I also think back on any previous, more personal interactions or experiences I’ve had that are relevant to the decision at hand. Gut instinct is great, but experience fortifies instinct over time, and allows us to better trust our gut. — Jaymes Black, The Trevor Project
14. DATA AND INSTINCT ARE PARTNERS
I try to treat data and instinct as partners. Data keeps us honest by showing what is working, where attention is moving, and whether our ideas are actually reaching people. But data often reflects what has already happened, while judgment and taste help us see what may matter next. This is especially true in an AI age when average answers are easier to produce. The balance is to let data inform the decision while preserving the human judgment that gives work meaning, originality, and resonance. — R. Ethan Braden, Texas A&M University
15. TREAT DATA AND INSTINCT AS COMPLEMENTS, NOT COMPETITORS
I balance data and instinct by treating them as complements, not competitors. Data tells us what’s happening and helps optimize at scale, while instinct comes from being deeply immersed in culture and understanding people in ways data alone can’t replicate. That balance is reflected in our “performance storytelling” model, blending culturally relevant campaigns with performance marketing, while using AI and analytics to validate and scale ideas. The spark behind the work will always come from human creativity, intuition, and ingenuity—telling stories that resonate emotionally, build authentic connection, and drive meaningful growth. — Vineet Mehra, Chime
16. BEWARE OF DATA THEATER
Gut instinct is how I generate a hypothesis; data is how I stress-test it; AI is what makes that cycle fast enough to matter. What’s changed with AI is that I no longer rely on instinct by default simply because getting the data took too long. The one thing I’m careful about is data theater, using numbers to justify a decision you’ve already made emotionally. I try to avoid confirmation bias with a spreadsheet. — Are Traasdahl, Crisp
17. DATA AND INSTINCTS ARE MORE POWERFUL TOGETHER THAN EITHER ALONE
Data tells you where you’ve been, potentially where you’re headed, and keeps us accountable. But in a market as dynamic as battery recycling and critical mineral refinement, we’re operating at the intersection of rapidly evolving technology, policy, and demand. Data alone can’t always capture what’s emerging and we need to rely on instinct to help inform our decision-making. We incorporate data into our processes to help validate direction and manage risk, but with our team’s decades of experience, gut instincts, combined with data, help us move with clarity. Data and instincts together are more powerful than either alone. — David Klanecky, Cirba Solutions
18. EVERY DECISION SHARPENS THE NEXT ONE
The real power in decision-making comes from productive tension between the two. Data can surface truths that push back on what you think you know. Instinct makes you curious, prompting you to dig deeper when a dataset feels like it doesn’t tell the full story. Leaders who balance this well build a habit of pressure-testing in both directions. They ask “what does the data say?” and then “what isn’t it capturing?” The organizations that understand this make stronger individual decisions, while also building compounding judgment across the business, where every decision sharpens the next one. — Adam L’Italien, Liberty Mutual Insurance
19. DATA CAN VALIDATE THE CURRENT LANDSCAPE
I use data to validate the current landscape and save my gut decision-making for the non-linear bets where numbers haven’t caught up to the shift in the market. — Khozema Shipchandler, Twilio
20. FIND FAMILIARITY AS A BALANCED, MIDDLE RESPONSE
In an environment of increasing noise and accelerating change, leaders tend to gravitate toward opposite extremes. On one side is gut-first, reactive decisions. On the other is a data-first focus that can become too narrow. Our job as leaders is to actively find familiarity as a balanced, middle response. That means leading with heart and humility, arriving open-minded, widening the data and perspectives we consider, and staying attuned to those we lead. Familiarity helps us meet today while leaping toward tomorrow. It is never done; it is re-earned through unlearning, self-awareness, and a belief in humanity’s unlimited potential for growth. — Pawan Verma, Cencora
